This is part 2 in a series. Part 1 - Entire series
What Changed That Made Us Fat?
In my profession as a systems administrator, one of the many hats I wear is as a troubleshooter. Something breaks that always worked before, and we're not quite sure what broke. The first question we generally ask is, "What changed?" Most of the time there was some unrelated change that was made to the system that coincided with the breakage or preceded it by some reasonable margin - and by identifying that contemporary change, the underlying problem is often discovered.
The obesity epidemic we hear about every day in the news really only started about 30 years ago. The NIH and CDC have compiled the various surveys and found that from 1960 to the late 70's, obesity in the United States was fairly fixed. Somewhere around 1980, it started trending upward, and it hasn't stopped.
So what changed? With the standard caveats about correlation and causality, I'd like to suggest a series of major shifts in our diet that I believe hit a critical threshold in the late 70's that toppled us over.
At the beginning of the 20th century, the food landscape was very different. Refrigeration was just beginning to be introduced, but it would not be found in homes until the late 1930's - however refrigerated train cars began eliminating seasons from the markets as food could be transported long distances while staying fresh. Many of the household brands we know of today were becoming national brands, like the National Biscuit Company (Nabisco), Campbell's, General Mills, Quaker, and Kraft. Diets consisted of a mixture of fresh and preserved meats, dairy (evaporated or sweetened-condensed when fresh was unavailable), cereals and breads, and fruits and vegetables.
Oh, and also corn liquor. Massive quantities of corn liquor. This country loves to drink and always has. We drank liquor at every meal. We drank before, during, and after work. According to W.J. Rorabaugh, our present tradition of the morning coffee break derives from what used to be a late-morning whiskey break. In the 1820's, an American man on average drank a half pint of liquor a day. And farmers enjoyed supplementing their income by distilling their extra grains into the sauce. Liquor taxes were up to 40% of the tax revenue for the Federal government prior to the passage of the 16th amendment in 1913. And according to the Smithsonian Magazine, the passage of the 16th amendment, authorizing the Federal government to levy a general income tax, cleared the way for the 18th amendment passed in 1919. And prohibition began.
Suddenly, the giant market for grain alcohol disappeared, and demand for grain decreased relative to supply. In most markets, this is not a problem - natural price pressures in the face of waning demand encourage producers to decrease production, and prices stabilize. The agricultural market strangely does the opposite. When the price of grains drops at the market, farmers grow extra yield to attempt to make up the difference - and supply goes up instead. Ingenious inventors and ambitious salesmen developed new industrial machinery to help give the farmers continually greater yields at comparably lower costs. Supply continued to rise, demand continued to stagnate.
And then the Depression hit. Demand fell. Prices went to zero.
It took heavy handed interventions from Roosevelt and the New Dealers to bring this overproduction under control. The problem was farmers overplanting to prevent falling prices from lowering their incomes. Under the new farm policy, the USDA set a target price for all storable cereals as a function of actual cost of production. If the prevailing market prices for those grains dropped below the target, farmers could take out a loan from the government using the crops as collateral. Over the course of the year, if the market improved, the farmers would sell the grain, pay back the loan, and move on. If the market failed to improve, the government would forgive the loan, take the collateral, and store it in its own granaries as a Federal grain reserve. If prices subsequently spiked due to a poor harvest or other unforeseeable conditions, the USDA would supplement the market supply with its own reserves. Prices and production levels stabilized, and grains remained abundant and cheap.
From the 30's to the 70's, this farm policy remained in place, but it became less relied upon. The market continually devised new uses for this enormous supply of grains, and farmers continually expanded their yields to meet this new demand. Livestock farmers had always used grains as a finisher for their meats - it was well known that grains fattened the animals before slaughter. More meat meant more money. But with grain prices so low, post-WWII demand for meat on the rise, farmers used more and more of these storable cereals as their animal feed until grass-fed became the oddity. A new process of oil extraction by using solvents like hexane led to the cheap, mass production of cooking oils from grains - cheaper and more efficient than the prior method of pressing oils.
And it all culminated in the early and mid 1970's.
In 1972, President Richard Nixon announced that he had brokered a deal with the Soviet Union to create an exception to our broad economic embargo of the USSR and permit them to purchase $750m of grains over the course of several years. The Soviet Union's domestic agriculture production was insufficient to feed its population, and Nixon saw the grain sale as both a humanitarian imperative and as an opportunity to improve the US standing in the Cold War. However, the Soviets exceeded their total purchasing quota in the first year. The US grain market might have been able to absorb the added demand without a price spike, but the farm belt experienced a coincidental spell of bad weather lessening expected crop yields. Food prices surged, including meats and dairy whose production now depended upon a surplus of cheap grains.
Nixon ordered the USDA to employ drastic measures to get food prices under control. Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz dismantled the New Deal-era farm policy and instead implemented a new subsidy program that instead of nonrecourse loans relied upon direct payments to producers. Farmers received a check from the government, and were free to dump their grains on the market regardless the price they fetched. In the immediacy, grain prices fell, but the new policy shifted the economics of agriculture radically. Farmers received direct subsidies based on yield, and as such had a perverse incentive to overproduce. Agribusiness companies began consolidating farms in order to minimize production costs but maximize the yields and profits.
Then came sugar. In 1937, the Federal government passed the Sugar Act which dictated the system of import duties and quotas for cane sugar based on the assumption of a world surplus in sugar. The energy crisis, inflation, and global commodity shortages made that assumption invalid - sugar consumption exceeded production from 1970 to 1974, and sugar prices climbed to 57 cents per pound. The Sugar Act which had been extended continuously by the Congress since its enactment was allowed to expire in 1974, and just three years later, the price of sugar fell to 8 cents per pound. A new system of tariffs and quotas was implemented in 1977, and sugar prices in the United States began to climb again. With the newly swelling surplus of corn being produced, US food producers began replacing sugar with a chemical substitute invented in 1957 - high fructose corn syrup. By 1985, individual consumption of HFCS grew to 45 pounds per year.
As these shifts were happening in the late 1970's, the predominant nutritional paradigm was also shifting. In the 1950's, Dr. Ancel Keys of the University of Minnesota in introduced a theory that a diet high in fat raises cholesterol levels and promotes heart disease. Researchers tested this hypothesis over the succeeding decades but the evidence was ambiguous - some studies positively correlated a high fat diet with higher cholesterol and cardiovascular disease while others found no such positive correlation. When science is unable to come to a consensus on the issue, as it often happens politics takes over. In 1977, Senator George McGovern led a committee to publish "Dietary Goals for the United States" which modified the guidelines in place since 1941 to advise Americans significantly reduce their fat intake to avoid "killer diseases" they alleged were sweeping the country. The NIH got on board in 1984, recommending that all Americans over the age of 2 eat less fat. The Center for Science in the Public Interest called fat "the greasy killer". Government pronouncements as such create headlines, and headlines alter market trends - food manufacturers highlighted their low-fat, high carb products. The low-fat, high carb recommendation was canonized in the 1980 USDA Dietary Guidelines publication and again in the 1992 publishing of the "Food Pyramid" - 6 to 11 servings of grains and cereals per day, use of fats and oils "sparingly".
The NIH has spent hundreds of millions of dollars in the intervening years trying to establish a conclusive connection between eating fat and getting heart disease. Out of the six major studies, five showed no such connection. The sixth conclusively demonstrated that statins, a prescription drug intended to minimize cholesterol imbalances, could prevent heart disease. The conclusion drawn by the NIH was that, even though they had failed to demonstrate that a low-fat diet had any health benefits, if statins could lower cholesterol and prevent heart attacks, a low-fat diet should do the same.
Instead during this time, we've seen historically unprecedented increases in the frequency of obesity, diabetes, heart and vascular disease, asthma, depression, liver and kidney failure, and cancer.
In the last ten years, nutritional scientists have been collecting an increasing corpus of data that strongly suggests the low-fat, high-carb strategy isn't just wrong - it's killing us. And the nutritional prescriptions that come out of this body of evidence tend to conclude that the fuels and nutrients that help our bodies function best are the ones that our paleolithic ancestors lived on for millions of years. I'll discuss those prescriptions and the evidence found in part 3 of this series.
Go to part 3 - "The Science of Paleo"